Welcome back to the table for the Friday, February 7th, 2025 installment of Market Plus.

Ted Seifrieds with us.

Ted.

Hi.

Hi, Paul.

I always appreciate your willingness to go with pretty much anything I ask.

I don't know if I've ever said that publicly, and I thank you.

Oh, no.

Yeah.

It's fun.

Well, I also want to do a little plug.

You're going to join us for our 50th season tour event in LeClaire, Iowa in June.

Okay.

So I'll ask all sorts of crazy questions then too.

All right.

We'll also take viewers.

You can sign up now.

We have more information about that in our market newsletter.

But Ted, let's start about markets.

We talked about those first.

Let's start with wheat.

KB in Manitoba wants to know did you, Ted, bring your corn hat ahead of next week's WASDE report?

And does he ever consider wearing a Minni wheat hat?

Minni capitalized there.

You can see on screen.

Minneapolis.

Minneapolis, right.

Correct.

Yes.

Well, first of all, I'm I'm very disappointed with.

Myself for not bringing the Corn hat.

I intended to and I left it in my office.

And then when I, you know, when it came time to to make the drive here, I realized that I didn't have it and I didn't have time to go back to the office because I was really intending to do it.

I feel like this is the right time to wear the corn hat, except for I'm.

Also slightly concerned that.

I.

If I were to wear the corn cat, I would corn hat I would, I would jinx the market.

So I maybe maybe.

It worked out.

Then the second.

Part.

what does a Minneapolis wheat hat look like?

I'm very impressed.

That was a good exchange that you did there on that.

Yeah, I mean, I, I searched on, Google and Amazon.

For a. Minneapolis wheat hat.

there was a Wheaties hat, which I think is interesting.

mini Frosted Wheats is a good one, but I couldn't find a hat.

but, yeah, I look, I, I.

For years I've been looking for a soybean hat.

The closest thing I can come, come up with is, is Ohio State Buckeyes, which I'm not a fan of Ohio State, necessarily.

and a Buckeye doesn't look that much like a soybean, but it's the closest thing I've been able to find.

and then I can't really find anything for wheat.

So it's the corn.

That's what we got.

But, but it's also, you know, a lot of fun to wear.

So.

Hypothetically speaking, if all those hats were perfect and the way they wanted.

It to be.

That what you wear?

Way to rein it in.

wish I had what I where I know.

Like I said, I'm kind of excited about the wheat chart.

but I want.

To give corn credit for what it's.

Done since the 26th of August.

And what it's what the corn balance sheet has done since, the outlook.

Forum numbers in February.

I mean.

There's a lot of reasons to.

Feel like.

Corn has, really pulled.

Itself out of the abyss.

over the course of the last.

calendar year.

Really?

And so, I don't know, I'd say.

For the year.

Now.

for, for the.

Achievements that have been.

the corn, for what could.

Be to come.

I don't know, I like I said, I'm very intrigued by the wheat chart.

We have, I have Mike's question about corn, but I want to skip that.

I want to go to Eric instead, because.

Eric, the easy question you can fold in Mike's question to your answer to this one about the top.

But Eric's question is very specific with the backdrop of La Nina forecast for the 25 Corn Belt growing season, along with drought, subsoil maps, very unfriendly.

How much higher will corn and beans need to trade to cover the 25 crop risk.

You know?

Okay, so there's.

You're asking about two different crops.

And I think there's two different answers because let's.

Start with corn first then.

Yeah.

So corn right now you know they've got they've had delays in planting the second.

Season corn crop.

Specifically.

In modern growth.

So a lot of growth.

So produces about 50% of the.

Safrinic second season corn crop in that second season corn crop is what we call their export crop, which is 70% of their overall production is very important.

Right.

And as of, a week.

Ago, they were only 6% planted.

As compared to.

Usually around 19%.

Planted.

They did catch up quite a bit.

they're I think 23% now.

As opposed to.

somewhere in the, low 30s.

so they're still not back to.

Average, but.

They this past week was a big catchup week for them.

But because it's going in late, it pushes that.

Second season corn crop into grain fill during what starts to become their hot and dry season.

So there's risk in that.

Which means I do think we have to keep a weather premium.

In the corn market for.

Now, for the second.

Season corn crop, then we're going to look at acres.

Can we get the acres planted?

We might need.

Weather premium for that if we're having if we're having our own harvest or I'm sorry if we're having our.

Own planting delays.

But then longer term looking into the summer.

Yeah.

So there's a lot of weather reasons why I think.

Yeah, there should be a little bit.

Of nervousness around corn.

And anytime you have nervousness about production.

They keep some.

Footing under the market.

Now, all of that being said, you also have funds about as long as they've ever been for this time.

Of year in corn.

And if something causes.

Them to run for the doors, and that could.

Be something that has absolutely nothing.

To do with weather or corn.

Fundamentals, well, then you can.

Take that weather support or.

Weather premium and say.

There goes right.

So look, there are significant.

Risks to the downside.

Anytime you.

Have a very large fund.

Speculative position.

In the market and.

You have a lot going on geopolitically, and just a whole lot going on from.

A headline perspective.

So there's a lot of risk in corn.

I think you do need to be looking at protecting downside things like that.

But also.

Weather.

Makes me feel.

Like there's more footing under corn than there is for, say.

Soybeans.

Because soybeans.

We're done with the Brazilian crop.

And yes, harvest delays.

That's short term bullish.

Because of, the lag time it takes some.

To get product to port and fulfill the orders that are already on the books.

Maybe that means.

More more export business for us, although.

We haven't seen it the.

Last two weeks of export sales for.

Soybeans have been very disappointing.

but these rains that you're getting at the end of season, I don't see them as being.

Damaging rains for their soybean crop.

If anything, keep in mind those soybeans got planted.

1 to 3 weeks later.

I think they could have been adding bushels.

I think we're going to be.

Shocked at what the world is going to be shocked at.

What that that.

Brazilian.

Bean crop ends up being.

so I.

Have a hard time being terribly bullish.

For beans because the global.

Carryover has gone from 100.

Million metric tons to basically.

130 million metric tons.

It's a massive increase.

We're swimming in beans.

We don't need a weather premium in beans.

Which highlights the what you said on the show about where you should be in selling some of this 25 crop.

Yes.

For us.

Right?

Yes.

So so as I.

Said, 20 to 35% for for corn, I'm a lot more of 15 to 20, 25%.

Right.

I think beans are the ones that you want to.

More aggressively sell.

In my mind, the only thing that can really save beans is would be China appeasing, appeasing us and living up to the phase one trade deal and buying soybeans just to buy soybeans.

And I will say that after this.

Last year, harvesting has dry as we.

Did.

The current the crop soybeans.

We have.

Have really good store ability.

So you know, okay, maybe I certainly.

Can't write that.

Off and say it's not possible.

But in my mind, China coming in and buying an additional 15 to 20 million metric tons, something big like that, is really only going to change the overall soybean fundamentals, even if we do have some minor weather concerns.

Certainly, if we go back into a two 2012 type drought.

Okay, completely different story.

But.

You know, we don't have to have.

A perfect soybean crop on big acres because there's a lot of.

Soybeans in the.

World.

And and we've done a really good job of growing beans in very dry conditions the last two years, which is also I think you've talked you and I have talked about several times.

All right.

Let's talk about fertilizer prices, if we could.

Mr.. Seifried.

Bradley in Nebraska, a lot of specific questions here.

So let's do overall, how much higher can fertilizer prices climb?

He's asking about are there potential tariffs with Canada already factored in potash.

What about Urias issue.

What about phosphorus?

Any of those stand out to you?

Yeah.

You know.

As far as the.

Potential tariffs, are they fully factored in?

No.

Is the possibility of tariffs factored in?

Yes.

there's a difference, right.

Because you know, tariffs were going in place and then then they got delayed for months.

So I don't think.

The market's.

Fully priced in.

What happens if that does go into place.

I do think there is more.

Upside potential there.

I think prices could go higher if that happens.

I'm hoping that's not going to be the case though I really am.

I.

Either.

Way, I do think input costs.

I mean, we're getting down to the nitty gritty.

I mean, the we're running out of time to wait.

I don't see any.

Near-Term major.

Downside potential.

I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see that happening.

I have one last thing, and it's.

I probably should have asked this before, so my apologies.

We're going to go back tiny bit Gary in Wisconsin could late planting Safrina corn planting effect.

This is why I'm going back to it affect crop insurance prices?

If so, how would it affect both insurance and then corn acres?

Yeah, no, that's a great question.

And it's a fun question.

And it's the answer is absolutely yes.

I mean, we're already.

Into the month of February.

February, the February average price is what we're going to.

I mean, that's what we're going to.

Go off of, right?

So at least the start to February has been good.

If there are, more.

Delays coming for.

This safrina corn crop, I'd say there's should be more strength in the corn market.

And that's just going to improve that average price.

the thing that happened at the end of the week, though, was, hey, the realization that.

More progress.

Was made last week than.

I think we were originally.

Expecting.

And b the.

Two week forecast in a row.

So looks maybe not wide open, but.

Pretty.

Conducive to them catching up.

Either way, as we were talking about, you know, keeping a.

Weather premium in the market because of the later planting corn and because of the risk that it has at the end of the year.

That's just that's going to or end of the.

End of the growing season.

That's just going to as long as there's.

No major fund.

Exodus, that's going to keep.

Corn prices, I'm going.

To say relatively elevated through the month of February.

And ultimately, yes, I do think that that could equate to a halfway decent.

Or or better than what we were thinking a month or two or 3 or 4 ago.

Right.

could equate to a halfway decent insurance price.

And that could encourage some last minute acres.

Beans, however, rallied a dollar in the.

Last month and a.

Half or so.

Beans have given us a little.

Bit more of a reason to.

Consider them, even though the cost of production, and.

Where the board prices and where cash prices are training.

Right now.

I mean, look, we're looking at.

Negative margins pretty much.

Everywhere.

So I'm not I'm not.

100% sure we're going to.

See a huge.

Increase on principal acreage.

like I've heard some people talk about.

I don't think they'll be down a whole.

Lot either.

But I, I don't know, you know, I, I think everything that's happening right now is.

Encouraging.

Us to plants.

Pretty much what we were expecting.

A plan in the fall.

I don't see.

Major changes.

But yes.

Corn.

If there was a.

Small winner, Or somebody was taking the lead.

A little bit more so, than where it was in, say, October, I think corn is is winning that.

But only slightly.

All right.

You're not slight at all.

You're big, big time deal.

Ted, I appreciate it.

Good to see a Ted.

Thanks, Paul.

Good to see you too, buddy.

Was trying to get somehow of a transition out there.

Sometimes it's easier than that.

It's easy that you join us.

And I do want to remind you, it's very easy to sign up for the Market to Market Insider newsletter.

It's free.

Sign up at Market to market.org.

Wanna let you know that next week we are going to talk about new farmers, how they are getting some insight on navigating the business of producing food.

And we will also have the analysis of Chris Robinson.

He'll be here to talk the markets.

Thanks for joining us.

Have a great week.